Network Working Group D. O. Watts Internet-Draft GoodShyt Group Inc. Intended status: Informational 30 October 2026 Expires: 3 May 2027 Human-Accelerated Geophysical Threshold Framework draft-watts-hagth-framework-01 Abstract This document defines an informational research framework for describing anthropogenic perturbations that alter the timing, probability, coupling, or consequence of threshold transitions in geophysical systems without requiring anthropogenic dominance of the system's primary energy source. Status of This Memo This document is an independent research draft. It is not an IETF standard, does not specify Internet protocol behavior, and is provided in RFCXML form to make definitions, requirements, and falsification criteria machine-reviewable. Status of This Memo This Internet-Draft is submitted in full conformance with the provisions of BCP 78 and BCP 79. Internet-Drafts are working documents of the Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF). Note that other groups may also distribute working documents as Internet-Drafts. The list of current Internet- Drafts is at https://datatracker.ietf.org/drafts/current/. Internet-Drafts are draft documents valid for a maximum of six months and may be updated, replaced, or obsoleted by other documents at any time. It is inappropriate to use Internet-Drafts as reference material or to cite them other than as "work in progress." This Internet-Draft will expire on 3 May 2027. Copyright Notice Copyright (c) 2026 IETF Trust and the persons identified as the document authors. All rights reserved. Watts Expires 3 May 2027 [Page 1] Internet-Draft HAGTH Framework October 2026 This document is subject to BCP 78 and the IETF Trust's Legal Provisions Relating to IETF Documents (https://trustee.ietf.org/ license-info) in effect on the date of publication of this document. Please review these documents carefully, as they describe your rights and restrictions with respect to this document. Table of Contents 1. Scope . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 2. Requirements Language . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 3. Terminology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 4. State and Counterfactual Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 5. Evidence Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 6. Falsification Criteria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 7. Unsupported Extensions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 8. Research-Integrity Considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 9. IANA Considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 10. References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Appendix A. Changes since -00 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Author's Address . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 1. Scope The framework applies only when a domain-specific stability margin or transition hazard can be physically defined and an anthropogenic perturbation can be measured or bounded. It does not establish a universal geophysical law. 2. Requirements Language The key words "MUST", "MUST NOT", "REQUIRED", "SHALL", "SHALL NOT", "SHOULD", "SHOULD NOT", "RECOMMENDED", "NOT RECOMMENDED", "MAY", and "OPTIONAL" in this document are to be interpreted as described in BCP 14 [RFC2119] [RFC8174] when, and only when, they appear in all capitals, as shown here. 3. Terminology Trigger A perturbation contributes directly to crossing a stability boundary. Acceleration A perturbation advances an otherwise expected transition time, quantified by a counterfactual time difference when identifiable. Amplification A perturbation increases the consequences of a primary event without necessarily causing that event. Watts Expires 3 May 2027 [Page 2] Internet-Draft HAGTH Framework October 2026 Coupling A perturbation to one subsystem changes the stability or hazard of another through a measurable causal pathway. Stability margin A domain-specific measure of distance from failure or transition, with units and sign convention declared by the study. 4. State and Counterfactual Model A study using this framework MUST distinguish natural forcing from anthropogenic forcing. It SHOULD define a state vector, a stability function or hazard process, an exposure history, and a counterfactual model in which the anthropogenic exposure is removed or changed. The acceleration estimand is Delta t_A = t_c^(0) - t_c^(A), where t_c^(0) is the counterfactual threshold time under the reference exposure and t_c^(A) is the threshold time under anthropogenic forcing. Positive values indicate acceleration. If either threshold time is not identifiable, the study MUST report that limitation rather than substituting event coincidence. 5. Evidence Requirements Attribution SHOULD include a physically plausible pathway, measurements or bounded estimates of the perturbation, uncertainty propagation, and a counterfactual design. Temporal association alone is insufficient. Successful numerical execution, software verification, or document integrity checks MUST NOT be treated as empirical validation of a physical claim. 6. Falsification Criteria An acceleration claim fails when the estimated Delta t_A is not materially positive under the preregistered uncertainty criterion. A trigger claim fails when the measured perturbation cannot physically reach the failing structure on the relevant time scale or changes stability in the opposite direction. An amplification claim fails when matched systems show no meaningful consequence difference after exposure adjustment. A coupling claim fails when the proposed mediator does not change as predicted or does not carry a measurable portion of the effect. Watts Expires 3 May 2027 [Page 3] Internet-Draft HAGTH Framework October 2026 7. Unsupported Extensions The framework does not, on current evidence, support claims of anthropogenic acceleration of major tectonic plate velocities, human control of mantle convection, demonstrated triggering of supervolcanic eruptions, geomagnetic collapse caused by crustal excavation, or global crustal failure. 8. Research-Integrity Considerations Implementations SHOULD preserve source provenance, contradictory evidence, null results, version history, and explicit distinction between empirical observation, derived result, conjecture, and speculation. Novelty and priority MUST NOT be asserted without a documented prior-art search. 9. IANA Considerations This document has no IANA actions. 10. References [RFC8174] Leiba, B., "Ambiguity of Uppercase vs Lowercase in RFC 2119 Key Words", BCP 14, RFC 8174, DOI 10.17487/RFC8174, May 2017, . [RFC2119] Bradner, S., "Key words for use in RFCs to Indicate Requirement Levels", BCP 14, RFC 2119, DOI 10.17487/RFC2119, March 1997, . Appendix A. Changes since -00 This section is to be removed before publishing as an RFC. Editorial and tooling-conformance changes only; no technical content was changed. * Added BCP 14 Requirements Language section (document uses uppercase requirement keywords without the boilerplate; idnits error) * Added RFC 2119 reference entry * Added RFC 8174 reference entry * Removed unreferenced bibliography entries (xml2rfc/idnits "unused reference"): Moein2023, Syvitski2022, Hill2024 Watts Expires 3 May 2027 [Page 4] Internet-Draft HAGTH Framework October 2026 * Normalized author metadata (full name with ASCII form, initials, organization GoodShyt Group Inc., San Francisco CA postal, email, ORCID URI) * Updated document date and revision number. Author's Address Deonté O'dell Watts GoodShyt Group Inc. San Francisco, CA United States of America Email: deonte@goodshyt.fun URI: https://orcid.org/0009-0005-8586-3650 Watts Expires 3 May 2027 [Page 5]